Thursday, April 06, 2006

The world is full of fools!

In a strange move, Majlis [Iranian parliament] has decided to reduce the rate of interest and further, agreed that no matter what the rate would continue to be cut by 1% every six month, untit a single digit interest rate is achieved. In the rest of the world, under the policy of inflation targeting, governments set inflation targets and then, give the central bankers the task of achieving and subsequently maintainting those target rates. In Iran, however, Majlis deputies ignored the warings by the Director General of the Central Bank and passed the bill to do things rather in the opposite direction! It is clear that without tackling the inflation rate, such an arbitrary policy could cause further problems for the official banking sector. If inflation rate stays the same, or even increase, but the rates of interest continue to fall, the official banking sector would certainly suffer. It is likely that this would lead to a further growth of the inofrmal "banking". It would further fuel financial corruption, already at an unacceptable level in the country, as those who have the necessary connections could borrow at the official rate and lend outat a certainly higher rate in the unofficial market. It is further anticipated that saving, already at a low level, would suffer further, and the available surplus instead of being deposited in the banking sector would be allocated to speculative transactions on land and similar properties. Capital flight would be encouraged and the resulting further devaluation of the Iranian currency is likely to add to the inflationary pressure which would in turn, intensify the negative impact of this stupid deicision. I sometimes wonder if those who make decisions in Iran, live in the same planet and read the same or similar things as the rest of us?
It is a pitty that I no longer believe in conspiracy theories as the way of explaining events. If I did, this could be the basis of a nice conspiracy to create further economic and financial problems for the Islamic Republic of Iran, at the time, that she is single handedly challenging the rest of the world! Could it be that the CIA agents or those who work for the MI5 or MI6 penetrated the Majlis in Iran?
p.s.
Please do not take my final sentence seriously. The world is full of fools, and the Majlis is not an exception!

2 Comments:

At 8:13 PM, Blogger Unknown said...

Thank you for your insights. It is interesting to hear from one who speaks with cultural insight regarding the situation.

 
At 5:13 PM, Blogger احمدسیف said...

Dear Martin: Thank you very much for your kind words. Hope to see you again. Please share your views about these posts with me.

 

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