Thursday, January 04, 2007

Iran's external trading imbalance:

According to the latest available data, imports into Iran in the first 9 months of 1385 [2006/07] exceeded $30 billion while the total value of non-oil exports was only $11.5 billion. This would give an annual trade deficits of nearly $26 billion [oil excluded]. While Iran earned $486 per ton for her exports, the equivalent figure for her imports was more than $996. It was also stated that $ earned per exported ton has declined as compared with the same period last year. The Custom Department has added that as compared with the same period last year, the value of Iran’s non oil exports has increased by 41.7 per cent, a point not missed by the Trade minister who claimed that in five years time, Iran is likely to turn trade deficit into a surplus. If this could be done, it would be a major achievement, but, a closer look at the composition of Iran non-oil exports suggests that it is unlikely to materialise. Petrochemical products account for nearly 40% of the non-oil exports, and more importantly, nearly 79% of the share of Petrochemical products belongs to Gas. To put it differently, the “ real” value of “ non-oil” exports is likely to be around $7 billion and not $11.5 billion as claimed by the official data.

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