I was in a party last night, an old friend who I have not seen for many years asked me about my views on Iran-US stand off. He said, by the way Iraj, do you think that the US or Israel would attack Iran? This is one of those 60 millon dollars questions that everyboy has his or her answer for it, and most likely, none of these answers is the correct answer for this vital question. At one level, I think that the US is not in a position to open up another front, as they are already in very deep trouble in Iraq and Afghanistan. I reckon that the US administration must be truly mad to take further burden. At the same time, though, I think that the US have reached a point that it badly need a scapegoat to divert attention from its disastrouns invasion of Iraq- if that takes another invasion, so be it. While this option may be likely, I think the invasion of Iran may be too big for the US to swollow and it could prove to be really disastrous for the US economy and her prestige-if any left in the world.
I am not revealing any secret to say, that if Iran is attacked, the government is likely to take these options:
- Trying to block the Straigh of Hormoz, hence, creating a massive oil shortage.
- To make sure that the supply of oil would remain disrupted, using all its military power to destry the oil industries in Saudi Arabia and other Persian Gulf states.
Would they attack Israel? I doubt it. Would Israel attack Iran? I doubt it too. Iran is not Iraq and the method used against Iraq in the 1980s would not work.The Iranian authority could very easily use their influences over the Hezv-ol-lah and Hamas to unsettle an already unstable situation in the Middle East. They could also make Iraq evey more unstable, not to mention about other options that they have. Furthermore, given his election defeat, Mr Bush has also his hands tied behind his back.
Overall, in my view, the situation is highly risky. You know what, this situation does not need too many fools to get out of control. One or two fools could do enough.